Ever wonder why blackjack is so
popular with the masses?
Maybe you're simply here to find out a bit more about
blackjack odds. Well, to kill two birds with one stone, lets discuss that very
topic; after all it's the odds that make blackjack so popular. I know you're all
thinking, you can't fool me, blackjack is a negative expectation game just like
the rest of the casinos offerings. You're completely right. A
negative expectation game is a negative expectation game (and that means
that the house edge is against you, which we'll get into a bit more in a
second).
What sets blackjack apart from its compadres though, is the
player-controlled variability of that expectation.
This page will provide you with a
good
general overview of what the odds really are in gambling, how they are
described, and what those terms mean. Only at this point is it worth quoting
numbers to you that relate directly to blackjack.
In roulette for instance, the odds against you are pretty standard for every bet
on the board, at a somewhat nasty 5.26% house edge. This means the house will
win 5.26% more of the bets on the table than they lose. Of course, if you've
been paying attention at the casino you'll realize it's more than this. Say you
bet on two columns on the same spin at the roulette table, the odds are you'll
win 24-14. So how is it that the casinos don't go broke? There is another factor
that has to be considered, and it's called the payoff. The house's advantage
stems from the fact that a payoff for a winning bet is a bit below the odds.
Read that sentence again, it makes sense, its just not poetry. Basically, if you
bet on two columns in roulette for 12 bucks each (24 bucks total) and win, you
get paid $12. But on odds of 24 to 14 the casino should pay back 14 dollars, on
an even playing field. The casino knows it can profit properly even against the
odds if it matches its payouts appropriately. The casino profits by taking $24
when you lose, but only paying $12 when you win.
I know this roulette example seems out of place on a blackjack odds page, but
trust me,
math is math and things apply all across the board in gambling. If
things didn't make sense after the last paragraph however, don't stop, because
it will become a little clearer quite soon. Perhaps in an effort to confuse the
masses, casinos often evaluate house edge in three or four different styles,
each of which corresponds to a term you might find more familiar. There is of
course the house edge, and also the return percentage, the vigorish (or vig),
and the hold. While they all essentially refer to the same thing, understanding
the perspective each phrase is spoken from is helpful. Lets talk about each of
these and you will see easily how they relate to blackjack odds.
The house edge is what we call a theoretical number, and is never calculated on
real world empirical experiences. It is the theoretical fraction of the overall
amount bet that the casinos would keep if every set of decisions were to fall
exactly into a statistical row. This is where the roulette example may become
clear. As per our two-column roulette table example, in 38 spins the house
expects to win 14 rounds at $24 profit each for $336 profit in all; at the same
time they expect to lose 24 rounds at $12 a pop, totaling $288 dollars of loss.
The total bet is 38 multiplied by $24: $912, while the take is $48 (the
difference between the $336 profit and $288 loss). The edge is $48 divided by
$912, which equals 5.26%. Keeping in mind that I used the qualifier "expected"
for the house, and although 38 rounds may not land 24 wins for the casino, 38
million rounds will net a number that is statistically insignificantly different
from 24 million. And of course, there are millions of spins, so the house does
indeed rake in its 5.26% edge.
Another theoretical number is the 'return percentage' or 'pay out percentage' (a
familiar term to slots fans). Basically the return percentage is just that, the
percentage of the money bet that would be returned to the players, again if
everything fell into a perfect statistical row. Return percentages are no
mystery to slots fans who know it is simply the compliment of the house edge.
This just means that a 95% payout rate means 100 minus 95, or a 5% house edge.
The Vig, or Vigorish, is a slightly different concept these days in casino
gambling. The Vig is a fee the casinos charge on certain bets. In some instances
the casino applies a vig as a bet is being placed, and therefore it is collected
regardless of a win or loss, and other instances like in Baccarat, where a Vig
is only charged on a win (the winning banker hand in baccarat).
House hold, or hold percentage, is the real world equivalent (non-theoretical)
of the house edge. If the house edge were to hold steady and all events were to
go to a statistical T, then the hold and the edge would be equivalent. It can
often be confusing though, because for games like a slot machine where there is
no variation, the hold is actually the real counterpart of the house edge, it's
simply based on tallies rather than probabilities. At the tables, considering
blackjack odds for instance, there is a little more variance in play, which
affects the amount of the edge the casinos are actually pulling at any one point
in time. The hold takes on a slightly different meaning when it comes to the
blackjack table. It is the amount of cash the casino actually keeps out of the
total dropped on the table. It is a counted real number, not a theoretical one
such as the house edge, but it is directly analogous to the house edge. The
variance is caused by variables such as how long players continue to bet from
original buy-ins and how big their wagers are relative to bankrolls, etc.
So how does this all relate to our blackjack odds? Well it puts you in the know
about house edges around the casino, and lets you see quite clearly how and why
blackjack has an obvious advantage for the players, a player-controllable
variable house edge. At this point you understand that the goal of any gambler
is to effectively reduce the house's hold during their session at the table. The
only way to practically go about this is by altering your playing style so that
the predictive house edge will be statistically lower (as that, in turn, will
decrease the house's hold). Players who use perfect basic strategy can reduce
the blackjack odds so much they are playing very nearly even with the house.
It's easy to find and play a blackjack game with a house edge of 0.5% or less
once you know what to look for and how to play it right. If you don't know basic
strategy, and are just playing on impulse, you're looking at a house edge of
anywhere from 2-5%. Many people are of the opinion that being presented with the
same old 'use basic strategy' quote is being presented with an absence of tips.
The fact of the matter is, basic strategy is just one big long list of perfect
tips, which will always be statistically superior to any other decision you
could make in the instance described. So instead of taking on the mindset that
'basic strategy' is only for basic play and not the 'advanced strategy' you are
looking for, understand that each 'tip' presented by basic strategy has been
worked out ahead of time to be the very best possible statistical decision in
that case. This will effectively lower the house edge for your hand, and in turn
lower the house's hold over the game. Play with basic strategy and over the long
run you will always win more than if you had played without. This is of course
over the long run, and although many people do indeed play with basic strategy
decisions, much of the time they won't double-down when basic strategy suggests
it, working on the notion that even if they don't, they still have a good chance
of winning the hand. The catch here is, basic strategy can only really affect
the house's hold if you take advantage of double-down situations to help your
profit margins. The extended low edge is next to meaningless if you don't double
down at the right times, because it simply won't translate into a lower hold for
the house (ie, a bigger profit for you).
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